FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot – Tiny Temper? Exploring the Voices of the UK’s Smaller Parties
The political piranhas of this election, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, the SNP and Plaid Cymru are all seeking to extract their pound of electoral gain from the Conservatives’ misfortunes. In an election charged by widespread voter dissatisfaction, each of the smaller parties are now setting out their own alternative offers to the ‘big two’ mainstream parties. Their political goals differ, be it to promote nationalism, launch a new brand of right-wing politics or to simply re-build their Commons seat share. But in doing so, each manifesto has clearly been finetuned with a specific portion of the electorate in mind. In this piece, we consider each of the smaller parties’ plans and offer you our assessment.
Reform UK is surging in the polls to the largest detriment of the Conservatives. Nigel Farage’s ‘contract’ has echoes of the 2019 Brexit Party and 2015 UKIP manifestos. However, Reform in 2024, could prove to be Farage’s most domestically successful political vehicle.
Reform is targeting immigration, hard. They pledge to freeze non-essential immigration, with “essential” skills, mainly around healthcare, being the only exception and have launched a Plan to “Stop the Boats” through leaving the European Convention of Human Rights and setting up a new ‘Department of Immigration’. They also want an employer immigration tax, which would see National Insurance for foreign workers rise to 20%. On the economy, Reform pledge to lift the income tax starting point to £20,000 per year. They claim this will free up to 7 million people from paying Income Tax, saving “every worker almost £1,500 per year”.
Launching the ‘contract’ in South Wales, Reform’s Chair, Richard Tice spoke about their third flagship policy too: ditching net zero, setting the party firmly in favour of oil and gas extraction, whilst pledging to scrap an annual “£10 billion of renewable energy subsidies”.
Whilst the chances of Reform winning enough seats to form a government is highly unlikely, the purpose of their contract is to claim headlines, and ultimately to entice apathetic or angry Conservatives voters. Above all, Farage will hope that Reform finally gets him a toehold in the House of Commons from which he can secure sustained attention on his political programme.
The Liberal Democrats’ goal is simple: rebuild their numbers in the Commons by directing their modest financial resources towards a handful of target seats in the traditionally Conservative ‘blue wall’ of Southern England. Ed Davey’s stunts during the campaign have garnered noteworthy press coverage, vital for a party usually starved of precious airtime.
The recent manifesto launch though saw Davey adopt a more serious tone, with a focus on health and social care policies. This included a £9 billion “plan to save the NHS”, plans to recruit 8,000 GPs, £1.1 billion investment on hospitals, and a pledge to introduce free social care, also tying into Davey’s own personal story as a carer.
Other commitments include a pledge to raise £5 billion from reforming capital gains tax and to reform the voting system. Throwing red meat to their pro-Remain membership, the Lib Dems have also pledged to rejoin the EU’s Single Market. This is a more significant development than first meets the eye, given how quiet the party has been on the Brexit in recent times.
Like Reform, the Lib Dems are looking to capitalise on the Conservatives’ woes. The latest numbers for the party look positive, and could once more see them hold a more powerful voice on the opposition benches and allow them a role in holding a Starmer government to account.
One of the most leftwing manifestos of this election, according to the IFS, the Greens’ plans set out a vision “which would see the size of the state increase on an unprecedented scale”. Their pledges include: £20 billion for NHS budgets over the next parliament; £151 billion a year of new taxes by 2029 and the scrapping of university fees. The Greens have also pledged to rejoin the EU Customs Union and restore freedom of movement.
By being big and bold the party will hope they can add a second Commons seat to their roster. According to the most recent YouGov MRP (19.06.2024), the Greens are projected to hold Brighton Pavilion and also gain Bristol Central, where current Co-Leader Carla Denyer is standing. But with an unapologetically left-leaning, pro-EU manifesto, the Greens will instead hope their policies will boost their overall vote share and appeal to a clear pocket of (potentially Corbynist) voters alienated by Labour’s move back to the centre ground under Starmer – not least, with younger voters in urban areas.
The SNP’s dominance in Scotland is being severely threatened by a resurgent Labour Party. After Nicola Sturgeon and her successor Humza Yousaf resigned, SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland John Swinney is hoping to steady the ship.
At their manifesto launch, Swinney said the SNP would “stand up for Scotland at Westminster”, adding that independence would help “build a fairer country”. Swinney reprises the familiar argument that an SNP majority of Scottish Commons seats would give his party the mandate “to begin immediate negotiations… to give democratic effect” to Scottish independence.
Other key pledges in the manifesto include rejoining the EU, demanding the full devolution of tax powers, and supporting the abolition of the House of Lords. They also pledge to scrap Trident, “tackle the drugs death crisis”, and propose an immediate emergency budget to reverse cuts to public spending. Their manifesto states they would take an “evidence-based approach” to oil and gas, saying, “any further extraction must be consistent with our climate obligations”.
Lacking any major surprises, the concise manifesto is a defensive one designed to sure up a shoe-string campaign which has struggled to secure positive attention.
Rhun ap Iorwerth faces the difficult task of challenging Labour’s longstanding dominance in Wales at a time when Starmer’s party is resurgent across the country. A degree of voter apathy towards Labour in Wales has not yet been enough to shift the electoral mathematics in Plaid’s favour, with the latest polls (YouGov, 19.06.2024) indicating the party is on track to win just four seats in the Commons.
Plaid’s headline manifesto policies include: overhauling the Barnett formula that determines public spending for devolved nations; the establishment of a National Development Agency for Wales; and funding 500 more GPs. On Welsh independence the 2024 manifesto is less forthright than earlier documents, proposing a “Green Paper” on the path to independence. All of this perhaps suggests a more pragmatic approach from Plaid, prioritising a focus on day-to-day voter concerns and deemphasising constitutional issues.
Conclusion
Whilst many of these policies have little chance of seeing the light of day in government any time soon; the increasing likelihood of a Labour victory means that many voters may feel free to make alternative choices at the ballot box. With the Conservatives’ support facing potential collapse, the election will see a great many seats change hands. Making gains where they can, these smaller parties may find themselves with louder voices in the next Parliament, with many of their policies potentially foreshadowing the debates to come when MPs resume their places on the green benches in a few weeks’ time.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.
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