FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: Securing the female vote ahead of the General Election

Women’s impact on electoral outcomes

Women have historically been underrepresented in politics. However, significant strides have been made in recent years. With three female Prime Ministers, a female First Minister of Scotland, and two female First Ministers of Northern Ireland, female representation in political life has increased.

Women represent over half of eligible voters in Britain and will play a decisive role in the outcome of the next election. Undecided women voters, particularly 2019 Conservative women voters, are likely to sway the result, with recent polling by More In Common suggesting that over 72% of Conservative women voters are now overwhelmingly in the “don’t know” column.

It was the floating “Worcester woman” – stereotypically categorised as a working-class woman with two kids in her 30s – who switched her Conservative vote to help Tony Blair secure his landslide victory in 1997. More In Common polling suggests that the vote of suburban women just over the age of 60 could have the same effect at the next General Election.

The female vote will undoubtedly prove decisive in shaping the electoral fortunes of Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer and will ultimately decide the scale of any potential Labour victory. However, it remains to be seen whether both parties can understand and capitalise on the policy issues that impact women.

The Conservative Party’s offer for a brighter future

The Conservative Party boasts a compelling narrative on women’s representation, producing the first woman to take her seat in the House of Commons and three female Prime Ministers. However, notable gaps in policymaking persist, perpetuating gendered effects and economic exclusion.

The long-standing cross-party calls for childcare reforms to alleviate the financial burden on parents have had limited success. 1.5 million mothers are still unable to participate in the labour market fully due to childcare constraints, resulting in a loss of 1% of GDP in economic output.

Piecemeal interventions, such as the pledge to introduce 30 hours of free childcare for 3- and 4-year-olds announced in the 2023 Spring Budget do not address the need for a whole childcare system revamp, considering the skills and capacity needed in the sector.

Similarly, the 10-year Women’s Health Strategy unveiled by the Government in 2022 aims to address the systemic “male as default” approach  in healthcare, tackling issues from maternity care to menopause.

Britain has the largest female health gap in the G20 and the 12^th largest globally, with clear and stark inequalities in health between women and men. And these important issues are not just a matter of public health but also economic health, with the neglection of women’s health in the workplace costing the British economy approximately £20.2 billion annually.

However, the efficacy of stand-alone initiatives such as the Women’s Health Strategy is threatened by structural issues in public services, including in the NHS – which, unsurprisingly, given the health gap, is of higher importance to women than men.

Meanwhile, current polling suggests that the Conservative Party faces a huge electoral challenge. Before 2015, women were more likely to vote Conservative than men, but this is no longer the case, with women now more likely to vote Labour than men.

To keep these voters, the party must be seen to address the long-term, substantive public policy challenges that affect women and which transcend symbolic gestures. Only this approach will deliver tangible economic benefits and help the Conservatives realise their ambition for a brighter future.

The Labour Party’s offer of hope and optimism

The Labour Party has long advocated for policies to empower women as part of its broader commitment to social justice and equality. At the party’s most recent annual conference, the Shadow Women and Equalities Secretary, Anneliese Dodds, argued that Labour is best placed to restore hope and optimism to women.

While the party will hope that its pledges to build a better, fairer Britain will resonate with the electorate as a whole, Labour’s offer to women sits at the heart of its plan for growth and national renewal.

Last year, Baroness Frances O’Grady announced a review of the gender pay gap and barriers to equal pay. The party has also committed to significant investment in childcare provisions, including delivering free breakfast clubs for primary school pupils and a comprehensive review of early years and childcare eligibility.

This coincides with plans to introduce “menopause action plans” for large firms to support women in the workforce experiencing menopause.

Labour also has the potential to produce Britain’s first female Chancellor. With a Shadow Treasury team dominated by women, Labour has passionately advocated for increasing women’s representation in the City and throughout financial services.

Indeed, the party’s “Financing Growth” report specifically details how a Labour government would deliver progress in this area, including working with the British Business Bank to set an investment allocation target for women and reporting on the percentage of applications considered from women.

Any incoming Labour government will face considerable fiscal constraints that may impact their commitments. With the party’s commitment to avoiding unfunded manifesto pledges, concerns have been raised over Labour’s ability to enact the meaningful strides to equality that their rhetoric promises.

However, as its manifesto is finalised ahead of the next election, Labour must consider the gendered impact of its policies if it is to deliver the hope and optimism it promises.

Conclusion

A General Election in Britain is fast approaching and both parties will soon set out their manifesto proposals to try to secure the female vote.

With the cost of living and pressured health and social care services disproportionately affecting women, both parties will need to unveil how they plan to address the structural inequalities preventing women from playing their pivotal role in society and consider the gendered impact of economic policies to address gender inequality.

Realising women’s inclusion will be a key driver for economic growth, and so both parties will have to capture this in their plans for the years ahead if they are to secure the female vote.