FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot- 2024 Local Elections: The last major political test before the general election 

Over 2,600 councillors in 107 authorities across England will be elected on 2 May 2024. Local elections this year take place across 58 district councils, 18 unitary councils, and 31 metropolitan districts. 10 combined authority mayoral elections will also take place, including inaugural elections for new Mayors in York and North Yorkshire, the East Midlands, and the North East.

While these elections are not always prioritised by the public, they do have a direct impact on people’s lives. The councils and mayors determine important local issues including bin collection schedules, how often streets are cleaned, how roads and potholes get repaired, and levels of council tax.

Many of these areas will be going to the polls for the first time since 2021 – a high time for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson – and against a national backdrop of an impending general election, politicians and pollsters will be looking at these local elections as the last big test for the major parties.

In 2021, the Conservatives became the party with the most-elected councillors overall, making gains of 235 seats. Conservative Mayors Ben Houchen and Andy Street kept their positions in Tees Valley and West Midlands respectively, and Labour lost 10 councils, 326 councillors, and the Hartlepool by-election.

However, with a typical turnout of under 35 per cent and local elections only in certain areas – excluding Scotland, Wales, and county councils – we need to be careful of drawing too many conclusions, particularly given that local elections are often used as a vehicle for voters to give the national Government a kicking.

This May, Labour and the Conservatives will be defending nearly 1,000 seats each, with the Liberal Democrats defending around 400 and the Greens just over 100. All eyes will be on the local authorities and mayoral areas where the Conservatives currently hold power or made significant gains in 2021 – particularly where they cross with key Labour target seats.

THE  MAYORAL WATCHLIST

London Mayoral

The race for City Hall will be different this year. For the first time, Londoners will vote under First Past the Post, rather than the Alternative Vote. The incumbent Labour Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is seeking a third term in office, and it will be a straight shootout between him and his Conservative opponent, Susan Hall.

Under the new system, Khan will need to persuade his previous second preference voters to put him as their sole choice and ensure that his 2021 voter base once again turns out to vote. Despite facing challenges over the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), Khan’s victory is almost certain. 

West Midlands and Tees Valley Mayoral

The West Midlands and Tees Valley mayoral elections will be closely watched. As flagship Conservative mayoralties since their creation in 2017, incumbents Andy Street and Ben Houchen are both looking to secure third terms in office. However, recent polling suggests that neither is as safe as once expected, with Street most at risk from an electoral mood that has grown more hostile to the Conservatives.

Street and Houchen are symbolic of the wider challenge that the Conservative Party faces with its inherited 2019 voter coalition. Positioned at either end of the broad church that is the Conservative Party, Street is a moderate “one-nation” Conservative, while Houchen is a red-wall  “big-state” poster boy of the Johnson era.

Despite this, neither is immune to the expected backlash at the polls following wider dissatisfaction with the Conservatives nationally. Street may yet be helped by the very public, and very painful, bankruptcy of Labour-run Birmingham City Council. However, Houchen is certain to see his enormous 73% vote share from the 2021 election shrink, hampered not only by Conservative woes nationally but his association with persistent rumours of scandal in relation to investment in Teesworks.

For the Conservative brand and Sunak, losing one may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both would look like carelessness.

LOCAL AUTHORITY WATCHLIST

Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council 

Due to a boundary review, all 72 seats on Dudley Council will be up for election in May. Conservative-run since 2021, many will be watching to see if the party can keep control after its majority reduced from 46 to 42. A repeat of the 12% swing to Labour seen between 2021 and 2023 could give them a chance of taking power. Local constituencies Dudley North, Halesowen, and Stourbridge are all expected to turn red at the next general election.

Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council 

Since 2011, Solihull Council has remained in the hands of the Conservatives, with the Green Party as the main opposition. In 2021, the only two remaining Labour councillors defected. As the only Metropolitan Borough Council in England without any Labour councillors, all eyes will be on whether the party can make any ground here.

Thurrock Borough Council 

With 15 seats up for election, Thurrock Council will be important to watch given it is currently run with no overall control. Having previously been Conservative-run and with a significant UKIP voting history, many will be looking to see if Reform can make any headway here. If they do, it will provide ammunition to the Conservatives who have long advocated for a push to the right of the party. In any case, any significant changes may be short-lived, given that an all-out election is set to take place next year.  

Wokingham Borough Council

Wokingham Council currently has no overall control, having previously been Conservative-run. With the Liberal Democrats only one away from a majority, many will be looking at voting patterns here as a potential indicator of the Conservatives’ future performance in the blue wall. Despite the potential change at the local level, incumbent Conservative MP John Redwood is predicted to be returned at the next general election.

THE IMPACT OF LOCAL ELECTIONS FOR SUNAK AND STARMER

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will be conscious of political momentum following the local elections, particularly given that Britain has mere months to go before a general election.

Starmer will be eager to make significant gains and demonstrate that Labour’s successes at recent by-elections and its continued high in the polls are meaningful metrics that point to a sweeping general election victory. While extrapolations are imperfect, a successful night for Labour would see them make around 300 council seat gains, including seats in Hartlepool and Harlow. The mayoralty in either or both of the West Midlands and Tees Valley would be the icing on the cake.

Starmer will also want to use any success at the locals to reinforce the prospect of Labour entering Downing Street at the end of the year. Failure to achieve the anticipated gains now could well muddy the water – as was seen when Labour lost one of the three by-elections in July 2023, when its failure in Uxbridge dominated discourse despite considerable swings in Labour’s favour elsewhere.

For Sunak, the local elections are more personal. He is fighting from a dwindling position, trying to prove that the Conservatives are still in the game after a difficult period for the party. A poor result is expected, with the Conservatives set to lose up to 500 seats – around half of their councillors facing election. They will be hoping for better than that. Any worse and Sunak’s leadership will undoubtedly be called into question.

Indeed, Sunak will be shrewd to remember that Theresa May’s loss of over 1,300 councillors in 2019 spelled the end of her premiership, with her resignation coming just 22 days later. If that wasn’t enough, he will also face his tenth by-election in Blackpool South on 2 May, which looks set to become his seventh by-election defeat since taking office in October 2022.

Of course, local elections are not general elections, but how people vote next month will set the political narrative for Sunak and Starmer ahead of an anticipated autumn general election. As both politicians know, it will be their last opportunity for a political MOT.

FTI Consulting will host an in-house political panel on Wednesday 8 May at 16:30 for an hour of analysis and conversation to discuss the local election results and many more political hot topics, followed by refreshments. To sign up to attend, please register here.