FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – Scottish National Party Conference 2022

As many had anticipated, while wide-ranging and mentioning topics as diverse as Brexit, Covid, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing protests in Iran, the First Minister’s speech was relatively light on policy commitments. This had been a running theme throughout the conference, which focussed on promoting the SNP’s record in government and criticising that of its political rivals, rather than on making major new policy announcements.

This lack of announcements was partly the result of few appearances on the main stage being made by Scottish Government Ministers, with the top billing speeches reserved for SNP Westminster Group Leader Ian Blackford MP, his predecessor Angus Robertson MSP (now Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution), Deputy First Minister John Swinney MSP, and the First Minister herself.

On social policy, the First Minister committed to an increase of the Scottish Child Payment, a form of child benefit, from £20 to £25 a week, as well as doubling “bridging payments” to Scotland’s poorest families this winter to £260. On health, she pledged two new Fast Track Cancer Diagnosis Centres to open in Scotland over the next year. And on energy, the First Minister confirmed that the Scottish Government remains opposed to fracking and will not be issuing licenses for projects in Scotland.

Instead of major policy announcements, the lion’s share of the First Minister’s conference address focussed on the SNP’s central cause- independence and the pursuit of a second referendum on Scotland’s constitutional future. In a fifty-five-minute speech, Sturgeon mentioned the cost of living crisis five times, but made fifty-eight separate mentions of independence.

The First Minister told the assembled delegates that “We are the independence generation”, continuing to assert that she firmly believed “we will be the first, in the modern world, to live in an independent Scotland”. In an upbeat speech written to rally true believers in her cause, the First Minister provided plenty of optimism about what an independent Scotland would mean, but little real detail on how she would deliver it.

On the economics of independence, the First Minister undertook to publish a new economic prospectus next week, including a proposal to use North Sea oil and gas revenues to establish a £20bn investment fund. She promised to repeal “anti-trade union legislation”, “end age discrimination for those on the minimum wage”, and to “show how businesses can benefit from independence”. Notably, the First Minister made only two passing mentions of her desire for an independent Scotland to re-join the European Union, despite Brexit’s central place in the SNP’s 2019 General Election campaign.

The focus on independence in the First Minister’s speech comes as little surprise in the broader political context of the conference. The Scottish Government heads to the UK Supreme Court today for the start of a two-day hearing on whether Holyrood can legislate for an “advisory” second independence referendum without permission from Westminster.

The case, which is expected to go in favour of the UK Government, reflects a difficult reality for the SNP- that without consent from Westminster, a fresh referendum on independence looks unlikely. The 1998 Scotland Act, which devolved powers to the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government, places restrictions on what the Scottish Parliament can or cannot legislate for without permission from Westminster, termed its “legislative competence”.

The UK Government says its “clear view” is that a bill legislating for a referendum on independence would be “outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament”. The Scottish Government argues that an “advisory” referendum would be within competence, as the result would not be legally binding.

Should the Scottish Government fail to secure the Supreme Court’s agreement that it can legislate for an advisory referendum, the First Minister has made it clear that she intends to lead the SNP into the next UK General Election on a single-issue manifesto of holding a second referendum, a pledge she made earlier this year and briefly alluded to in her conference speech.

This has led commentators and opposition politicians cynical about the merits of the Scottish Government’s Supreme Court case to conclude that the First Minister has always planned to take this approach, exhausting all legal avenues to pursue a second vote in order to build a compelling case to secure independence through electoral success.

While this strategy will help to unite SNP politicians and activists behind the First Minister (and will no doubt be supported by the new SNP “broadcast platform” announced by Deputy Leader Keith Brown), there is little guarantee that it will deliver the results she hopes for. The UK’s “first past the post” system gives the SNP an advantage in such an election campaign as the dominant pro-independence party facing a divided unionist opposition, but a campaign fought as a de-facto referendum also incentivises tactical voting by unionist voters.

The Conservatives have built a semi-successful brand in Scotland by securing tactical votes from unionists who may not be natural Conservatives but trust the party to oppose the SNP’s demands. Douglas Ross’s Scottish Conservatives remain the second party and the official opposition in Holyrood, staying narrowly ahead of Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour in last year’s Scottish Parliament elections.

The Labour Party not only receives similar tactical support but is also on the rise in Scotland in recent polls, buoyed by the inroads it is making in other parts of the UK. Should this trend continue, and a Labour victory at Westminster look likely, it will become challenging for the SNP to continue to frame the next election as a choice between an independent Scotland and an unpopular Conservative government.

While much has been made in Westminster over the potential for SNP MPs to prop up a future Labour minority government in exchange for a referendum or form a coalition with other “progressive” parties at Westminster, the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, Jonathan Ashworth, unequivocally ruled out such a deal this weekend. Labour has never governed without a significant contingent of Scottish MPs and an independence vote that could put these seats out of the equation entirely in future elections poses an existential threat to the party. For the Conservatives, officially the “Conservative and Unionist Party”, such a deal would be similarly unthinkable.

With this perspective, despite the optimistic tone of the First Minister’s speech in Aberdeen, independence looks no closer today than it did in November 2014 when she first climbed the steps of Edinburgh’s Bute House as First Minister. Barring a major upset at the Supreme Court this week, Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP still has long road to travel towards achieving its ultimate goal.