FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – Conservative Party Leadership Election 2022: What does a new Prime Minister mean for the UK’s journey to Net Zero?
On Monday 5 September, the UK will have a new Prime Minister. As either Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss imposes their own priorities on Government, the direction of policy will inevitably change. This change will come at a critical time for the UK, as it enters the remaining two months as COP President and with a transformative Energy Security Bill going through Parliament.
With the UK’s transition to Net Zero barely featuring so far in the race to succeed Boris Johnson, many are asking what this change will mean for the direction of the UK’s policy on climate change. In this piece, FTI Consulting’s Public Affairs experts will answer that question.
Boris Johnson’s time in office will always be associated by bringing the first phase of Brexit negotiations to an end, the UK’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and creating the concept of ‘Levelling Up’. Yet his administration’s most enduring legacy will likely be the course it set on reaching Net Zero.
Domestically, Johnson’s government published a lengthy and ambitious Net Zero Strategy and was the first of any country to enshrine a commitment to meet Net Zero by 2050 in law. Far from the ‘bonfire of standards’ some feared from a UK leaving the EU, his administration established some of the most stringent obligations on protecting natural capital through the Environment Act, and even established an independent regulator – the Office for Environmental Protection – to keep the government to its environmental commitments.
Internationally, as COP President, the UK has become a leader in the global fight against climate change and even to some extent answered the question of the international relevance of a post Brexit Britain, in large part due to the impact Alok Sharma has had in his role.
Now, with one of Rishi Sunak or Liz Truss due to take the helm of the British ship of state from the 5th September, attention is turning to what Johnson’s successor will mean for the UK’s climate change ambitions. Despite the strong recent record, combating climate change and reaching Net Zero has played only a minor role in the leadership contest.
With a clear focus from both candidates on the economy and several surveys suggesting Net Zero languishes at the bottom of the priority list of Conservative Party members, there are increasing concerns that irrespective of who becomes Prime Minister in September, the UK will soon be applying the brakes, or even reversing direction, on the road to Net Zero.
While a new leader at the very top of the British Government will doubtless set the UK’s ambitions on climate change in the near-term, the institutional frameworks in which they will work are an essential, and often unappreciated, influence. No Prime Minister works alone (for long at least) and so Westminster and the Whitehall machine, are essential political forces which will impact the direction of travel for the UK’s climate ambitions.
When given the opportunity – often in the context of a ‘quickfire question’ in a televised debate – both candidates have reaffirmed their continued commitment to Net Zero by 2050. For Rishi Sunak, this has often been through the dimension of the ‘one issue [his] daughters ask [him] about, the environment’; for Liz Truss, her own past as a teenage environmental activist. However, neither candidate has pledged to accelerate the UK’s transition.
Truss has even called for a reconsideration of fracking and questions whether pro-climate measures currently in place are appropriate for the current economic context. A moratorium on green levies would be among her first acts as Prime Minister. As the favoured candidate of the right of the Conservative Party, there is also an inevitable association between Truss and her more generally climate-sceptic supporter base. Nevertheless, as Environment Secretary, Truss openly recognised the human contribution to climate change, and has committed to sending a UK delegation to COP 15 in December.
As the Chancellor who has driven Green Finance in the UK, Sunak has climate credentials on his political CV, but his most high-profile pledge on climate has been the creation of a new ‘Department for Energy’ – potentially undoing the 2016 decision taken by the May government to merge the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and Business Innovation of Skills – creating the current Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS). It is unclear what that would achieve in practice – Alok Sharma and Kwasi Kwarteng are Cabinet ‘big beasts’ for whom Net Zero is a personal priority. Machinery-of-Government changes make headlines but seldom improve policymaking in the short term too.
As such, the picture painted by the leadership contest is a complex one. It also reflects political realities. Neither candidate is using climate as an attack line on the other because of other, more pressing issues – inflation and cost-of-living – for their voter base. There is also a broad consensus within the Conservative Party in support of Net Zero, as evidenced by the legislative and policy agenda of Johnson’s administration.
In the absence of clear policies from either candidate, an analysis of the external forces they will have to navigate can provide an assessment of what a win for either candidate may mean for the UK’s journey to Net Zero, and whether a policy divergence may be on the cards.
Westminster
There is cross-party political consensus on Net Zero. While it may not be high on the list of priorities for Conservative Party members, surveys also regularly show that it is hugely important to the British public.
Were a new Prime Minister to unravel the current legislative framework regarding Net Zero, they would face considerable resistance from elements within their own party, create a clear opportunity for the Opposition, and damage the Government’s credibility with voters. With climate a non-partisan issue in the UK, there is seemingly no benefit to the Conservative Party’s electoral interests to call into question their environmental credentials ahead of a General Election before the end of 2024 – potentially even sooner – in which climate change is likely to be central.
Progress on the road to Net Zero is also complementary to other priorities. Increasing domestic production of clean energy is a core tenet of the Energy Security Bill and enhancing the UK manufacturing base for green tech contributes to the skills and Levelling Up agendas.
Whitehall and the Courts
Within the Government. BEIS is at the forefront of the UK’s transition strategy – the absorption of DECC six years ago placed climate at the heart of the UK’s industrial policy. The Department for Transport (DfT) and Department for the Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) are committed to reforming transport and agriculture. Even before the UK became COP President, the Foreign Office engaged in climate diplomacy, and following COP26, the UK will continue to lead on climate change, with the COP Unit established to support Sharma’s role likely to play a role in capacity-building for future presidencies. Reaching Net Zero by 2050 may provide an answer to what ‘Global Britain’ means in practice.
While the adage of ‘officials advise, Ministers decide’ is true, the emphasis placed on reaching Net Zero in recent years permeates the advice on which Ministers decide and unpicking the sheer amount of resource dedicated to climate would be a mammoth undertaking and further demoralise the Civil Service.
Furthermore, the commitment to reach Net Zero by 2050 is bound in law, which means all new Government policy and regulation is assessed against it for compliance. While that target retains that status, it will be nigh-on impossible for departments to knowingly undermine it. The recent order by the High Court for BEIS to explain how the policies contained in the Net Zero Strategy will reduce emissions also demonstrates that the UK’s justice system will hold the Government to its promises.
As a result, a Prime Minister seeking to depart from the UK’s current stance on climate would face a difficult uphill battle.
If the destination is set, the speed at which the UK gets there is not, and this is where the new Prime Minister will have most influence.
Of the two candidates, Liz Truss’ focus on deregulation and tackling the cost-of-living crisis positions her as more likely to support a deceleration of the Net Zero agenda should she consider certain aspects hinder economic growth. Sunak is the continuity candidate – but his focus on balancing the books means an uptick in Government spending on climate adaptation is unlikely in the short term.
Irrespective of who wins the contest, the clearest indicator of their ambition on climate and Net Zero will be the appointments they make. Appointments to key Cabinet or Ministerial portfolios for individuals such as Greg Hands or Bim Afolami would be a clear statement of intent and ensure the continued prominence of reaching Net Zero within the Government machine.
Barring a fundamental and highly unlikely reversal, the UK’s path to Net Zero is set. The Government knows more progress is needed and so the question is whether our new Prime Minister will get us there sooner rather than later.
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