FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot: 2024 Munich Security Conference: Can Europe match its rhetoric with action?

Celebrating its 60^th anniversary, MSC24 focused on countering a “lose-lose” downwards spiral in international cooperation. However, the mood last weekend was gloomier than that at MSC2023.

With unity fraying over Ukraine on the second anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion, Taiwan tensions intensifying, and new conflict in the Middle East, the bandwidth of the US and its allies is spread wafer-thin. Opening the conference, the UN Secretary-General warned that the world is more fragmented than at any time during the past 75 years.

MSC24 saw a broader cast list in attendance, including many high-profile Middle East leaders, with conversations exploring the post-war future for Israel and Gaza dominating airtime.

Equally, the presence of the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, provided another important draw, with Wang warning against a broad “decoupling” of the international community. He also repeated China’s redlines over Taiwan.

However, the main topic of conversation was the future of Europe’s collective security and Ukraine. MSC24 followed difficulties seen in the US Congress to pass new support for Ukraine, as well as Donald Trump stating that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO countries that do not meet spending commitments if re-elected to the White House.

These developments have turbocharged concerns in recent weeks over the state of Europe’s independent readiness for conflict and the longevity of the US’ commitment to uphold NATO’s core principles of collective defence.

Trump’s words hung tightly to conversations throughout the weekend, compounded further by a resurgence of Russian confidence following recent advances on the Ukrainian battlefield.

The first day of MSC24 brought news of the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. This stunned the Munich attendees and underscored the dangers of the moment. The news led to a wave of criticism against Russian President Vladimir Putin and an outpouring of support for Navalny’s wife, who was attending the conference when the news landed. 

Under this setting, leaders strained to provide answers on Europe’s preparedness without guaranteed long-term US support.

Batting for the Biden administration, both US Vice-President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken tried to reassure European allies of America’s enduring commitment. Back in the US, President Biden himself sought to reassure Ukraine of his confidence that Congress will pass its $60 billion military aid package.

However, these pledges, and NATO statistics showing that most member states will this year spend 2% of GDP on defence for the first time did little to reassure.

Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine attended the MSC for the first time since the full-scale Russian invasion and criticised delays in countries’ security assistance to Kyiv as an “artificial deficit of weapons”, warning delegates that “if Ukraine will be alone … Russia will destroy us”.

Even calls from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for Europeans to “do much more” to uphold European security and his comments about raising German defence spending to 2% of national GDP only seemed to give measure to the broader divisions in coordinating European defence. The implication being that some EU and NATO members are stepping up to the plate more than others.

Despite the gloom, MSC24 did offer signs of a way forward. The rhetoric was there, with Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas tweeting that “this is the European hour” and “we need to rise to the challenge … to spend on defence”.

Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte – the overwhelming favourite to become the next NATO Secretary-General – called for European allies to stop “whining” about a possible Trump presidency and instead to increase ammunition production.

As for the action needed to coordinate this European effort, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was busy on the sidelines suggesting that now is the time for Brussels to incentivise Europe’s defence industry, promote production, and overcome “fragmented defence markets”.

Following MSC24, she announced her re-election campaign, advocating for the creation of a new European defence commissioner post. While novel, this proposal will likely not be a simple initiative to implement. Questions are already being raised about the remit of such a position and how to ensure it would not duplicate efforts already undertaken by bodies such as the European Defence Agency and NATO.

However, with these proposals and the imminent publication of a new European Defence Industrial Strategy, Europe may be creeping closer to greater action. But only time will tell if this will be enough to secure long-term peace and security for Ukraine, maintain NATO’s stability, and shore up the credibility of European deterrence for the long term.