FTI Consulting Ireland Public Affairs Snapshot: One Year Out from an Irish Election

The very latest the next Irish general election can be held is March 2025 and, although Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar has said the Government will go the full term, an early election before the end of 2024 remains a possibility. Several factors that could act as a catalyst hang in the balance, including the performance of the government parties in the local and European elections in June, and the possibility of by-elections if any of the members of the current Dáil (Irish Parliament) running for the EU Parliament are successful. If an election is called in 2024, then it is possible that it could take place in late October or early November, providing the current Irish government with the potential polling tailwind from Ireland’s annual budget which is scheduled to be published in early October. Either way, the current Irish Government – a coalition of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and The Green Party – is in the final year of its term and the election countdown has begun.

The Next Election: What the Polls Say

While the election date remains unclear, what is certain is that the outcome of the next election will likely bring about a historic change in government. For the first time in modern history, Sinn Féin are expected to enter government in Ireland, possibly as the largest party in the State. The main opposition party has held a substantial and consistent lead in the polls (despite a recent slight drop) over Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil since the 2020 General Election. After 13 years in government, Fine Gael has fallen out of favour with a public who are increasingly frustrated with the housing crisis, struggling healthcare system, and the cost of living, among other issues. Sinn Féin is viewed as the main alternative to the current government, with populist policies that promise to deliver the social and economic change many are seeking. It’s widely expected that the next election will be a question of how many seats they win, not if they will win, and how potential coalition partners perform.

Election Issues: Housing and Cost of Living

Housing is, and has been, the number one issue in Ireland for several years now, dominating the current government’s agenda since its formation in 2020. The issue has only become more acute in recent years and the affects are being felt across all of society. Business leaders and industry groups have been vocal on the impact that the lack of affordable housing is having on the ability to attract and retain talent, citing it as the main factor behind labour and skills shortages. Recently, we have even seen companies take the drastic step of acquiring residential developments near their headquarters or operations to support their staff.

The cost of living is another concern  for many who continue to experience the effects of inflation. Despite a gradual stabilisation in 2024, households and businesses are continuing to struggle, and the government remains under pressure to continue to provide support.  

In recent months immigration has also surfaced as a growing concern, particularly in rural communities where asylum seekers and refugees are being housed. Misinformation as well as a lack of engagement from officials with communities is fuelling concern and negative sentiment around the issue. While Ireland has historically been open to immigration and welcoming to those seeking international protection, the tone of the debate has shifted in recent years with the emergence of far-right parties and movements, as well as other commentators expressing concern about rapid population growth and questioning Ireland’s ability to build the necessary housing, services and infrastructure. Anti-immigration parties have found it difficult to gain any real foothold in the political system to date. It will be interesting to see if this remains the case in the various elections of 2024. A recent Ireland Thinks poll for the Sunday Independent found that immigration is now the second most important priority for voters at 33%, with 35% saying they would consider voting for a party or candidate who holds strong anti-immigrant views.

The Last 12(ish) Months

In its final months, the Government will remain focused on building homes, helping households and businesses with the cost of living by, as Taoiseach Varadkar put it, “putting money back in people’s pockets” and ensuring a strong economy. The main priority will be getting to October and delivering one last national budget for 2025 so that candidates have something to point to when canvassing for votes. Minister for Finance, Michael McGrath is already dangling the carrot of what he says will be “a substantial income tax package”. They will also be keen to report further progress on the ‘Housing for All’ policy which aims to deliver 33,000 new homes per year to 2030 – although this figure is well short of the 50,000 actually needed to meet demand, according to the Economic Social Research Institute and so any success in meeting their target is unlikely to win them much support.

Whatever the timing of the next general election, it is likely to be one of the most significant elections in the history of the Irish State. The prospect of Sinn Féin in government, which seemed an absolute impossibility to most Irish citizens for the past 100 years, seems increasingly likely. It’s about to be a very interesting 12 months in Irish politics.