COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 21st August 2020

The FTI UK Political Analysis last week looked at the increased probability of a Joe Biden victory in the race for the American presidency combined with what had at one stage seemed an improbable simultaneous Democratic recapture of the Senate, and explored what the impact would be for the UK Government and how Boris Johnson may adapt in advance to this wholesale change in Washington. The implications of such an outcome are, though, not restricted to politicians but extend to the business community inside the United States (obviously) and to anyone who does or aspires to do business in and with the United States. This has particular importance for the private equity industry as the US remains the largest single player in the international market, it is a hugely important source of funds for the sector and there are many UK-based private equity investments that have been made which involve US-based acquisitions or the US as a crucial market.

The stance that a US Administration and Congress might take towards the corporate community should, therefore, be of intense interest in the UK and the EU. The scale of the coronavirus crisis and Brexit have probably served to distract attention from it. The personality of, and polarisation around, Donald Trump himself has also acted to move the spotlight away from the policy impact of a switch in control of the Oval Office, especially if it were to be fused with a Democratic Senate allied to a Democratic House of Representatives and hence at least the opportunity to advance a one-party agenda.