COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 19th June 2020

The apparent popularity of the reopening of non-essential retail this week has raised expectations of a further shift towards ‘normality’ at the beginning of July, when pubs and restaurants are expected to return to the scene – albeit with social distancing and a strict limit on the number of personal contacts that an individual can interact with. It has also exposed the extent to which ministers and scientists may well find that their bond is fraying. Much of the Conservative Party manifestly loathes the lockdown, is inclined to believe that it is either excessive or introduced too late on the basis of dubious advice, and wants to liberalise the lockdown as much as it can in part by ending the so-called ‘two metre rule’ and replacing it with a ‘one metre rule’ instead. The indications, though, are that many scientific experts who have been part of the SAGE system disagree and are far more concerned about the prospect of a second spike in the virus later this year than they are about the short- and medium-term condition of the hospitality industry. There is a serious possibility of a public split, including prominent resignations, over this matter.

The wider reasons for mounting tensions within Whitehall can be found in the minutes of the first 35 meetings of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, which were released in late May and examined in detail for past and future policy in this Analysis. They reinforce the conclusion that an open divide on next steps is a serious possibility.