FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – 100 days in, time is running out for Rishi Sunak

Sunak came to office acknowledging the “profound economic challenge” the country faced and citing the need for “stability and unity”. His “utmost priority”, he told his party, was to bring the Conservatives and the country together by serving with “integrity and humility”. Whilst he has been able to deliver more political stability than the country has had in months, the fact that Sunak’s government has already been rocked by its own scandals goes to show that no matter how good the intention, reality often scuppers even the best of plans.

The Prime Minister faced immediate criticism for his reappointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary, just six days after she resigned for breaching the ministerial code. He also appointed the twice-sacked Gavin Williamson, who then had to resign due to accusations of past bullying and unethical behaviour.

More recently, the Prime Minister himself received a fixed penalty notice from the police – his second in less than a year – for failing to wear a seatbelt in a moving car. And just last week, Nadhim Zahawi was sacked from the government after it was revealed that he paid a penalty to resolve a multimillion-pound tax dispute whilst serving as Chancellor. More trouble lurks on the horizon, too, this time for Dominic Raab, another subject of multiple bullying allegations.

Sunak’s own desire to do things by the book – waiting for his independent ethics adviser to rule on Nadhim Zahawi’s case, for instance – has risked him appearing weak and indecisive, which is not a position in which any Prime Minister wishes to be. Indeed, this is a characterisation that the Labour leader, Sir Keir Starmer, has consistently pushed in recent weeks – however odd it may be for a former Director of Public Prosecutions to criticise a Prime Minister for upholding due process and the presumption of innocence.

Everything else aside, this is far from an ideal situation for a Prime Minister who came to office pledging a return to “integrity, professionalism and accountability”. Indeed, the hangover of past scandals is making it that much harder for Sunak to claw back the loss of public trust suffered under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, with each negative story leaving the public with a bitter taste that only grows in potency.

Despite the vast array of problems still gripping the country, though, few question Sunak’s diligence or dedication to the job. From day one, he has tried to steady the ship and guide the country to calmer waters than where it was left by the Truss administration. To that end, Sunak recently set his government five clear priorities: halving inflation, growing the economy, bringing down the national debt, cutting NHS waiting lists, and passing new laws to “stop the boats”.

Whilst these goals will no doubt offer some much-needed direction for the party, the lack of real ambition behind them is palpable. Sunak’s pledge to halve inflation, for instance, mirrors existing economic forecasts. Similarly, plans to reduce NHS waiting lists and stop the boats lack hard targets, meaning that even the slightest of improvements can be heralded as success stories.

However, the Prime Minister will hope that even minor progress – or simply the illusion of progress – will offer him a path to turning around his party’s fortunes ahead of the next election. But even such minor progress may be some distance away, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting that Britain faces the worst two years of any major industrial economy. Alongside other issues, such as the wave of industrial action across the country and difficulties over Brexit in Northern Ireland, Sunak remains in an uncomfortable position.

There remains a broader, more fundamental problem that the Prime Minister must contend with too. Whilst his five priorities bring at least a modicum of clarity, order and purpose, they are basic. They expose the fact that the Government is still in firefighter mode, and that after almost a decade and a half in government, the Conservative Party is lacking in energy and, more dangerous still, ideas.

At the next election, the public will expect more from the Prime Minister than simply a declaration that the basic functions of the state are no longer in total disarray. Sunak will need to present his own vision for the country if he is asking the electorate – on the back of an incredible spell of chaos – to grant the Conservative Party a historic fifth term. Sir Keir Starmer and Labour need to do the same, of course, but they don’t carry the weight of 13 years of government on their shoulders.

The problem for Sunak is whether he can deliver on that bigger picture. Nobody would question that Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, and even David Cameron knew exactly the direction in which they wanted to take the country when they took office. But there are genuine questions over whether Sunak can lift himself from the confines of steady managerialism and inspire the public by painting his own vision for Britain. In any event, the perennial question for a Conservative leader would remain: even if he can, are his colleagues capable of showing the necessary discipline to give him a chance at success?

Party factions remain rampant, with numerous research groups seeking to install their own competing ideologies. Just last month, allies of Liz Truss launched the Conservative Growth Group, a free-market caucus founded to advocate the supply-side deregulatory policies and low taxation beliefs that Truss herself espoused. The group is also born out of a growing concern that the Sunak administration has no plan for economic growth – a charge also levelled by Andy Haldane, former Chief Economist at the Bank of England.

Indeed, a growing number of MPs are also asking the question: if the Conservatives are now simply adopting a social democratic policy outlook, what’s their USP versus sensible-sounding Starmer and reliable Rachel Reeves?

It’s not only those on the free-market wing who are unhappy, though. At present, a third of the Conservative Party thinks the government’s direction of travel is wrong and “un-Conservative”. Another third thinks the first group has lost their minds, and the final third is comprised of people who are fed up with everything and everybody.

History shows that this sort of disjointedness makes winning elections all the more difficult. Indeed, for quite some time, this unrest has been reflected in the polls, which regularly show the government trailing the opposition by 20 points. Even worse for the Conservatives, though, is the lead that Sir Keir Starmer has established over Rishi Sunak on the party leader that Britons think would make the best Prime Minister. Reversing this is mission-critical for Sunak, since it is this metric that is historically indicative of who will go on to clench victory at an election.

Divided in purpose, lacking in vision, and starved of discipline – some are now convinced that the game is up for the Conservatives, and that the best the party can hope for is to remain the largest party in a hung parliament. Indeed, some believe that losing the next election is precisely what the party needs to recover and recuperate after a period in power that has, somewhat unsurprisingly, become more and more difficult as time has gone on.

That said, as the most electorally successful party in history, it would be foolish to write off the Conservatives completely. Past incumbents of No 10 have turned around significant polling leads, and some in Sunak’s close circle believe a 2015-style small majority is still within reach, especially given the numerous problems that still torment the Labour Party and the fact the government is not faced with an opposition leader who possesses “the Blair factor”.

Ultimately, one thing is crystal clear: the Prime Minister needs a lot more than luck to turn around the government’s fortunes and extend his stay in No 10. He must swiftly restore discipline within the Conservative Party and show the public that Britain and its institutions aren’t broken beyond repair. To do this, demonstrating tangible progress in key areas and communicating a vision of the country’s future must go hand in hand.

Whilst this may force Sunak to move outside of his comfort zone and away from the procedure-driven, hyper-calculated politics he favours, the alternative would hand Labour the sort of smooth run-up to the general election that any political party would dream of. But, more than 100 days in already, time is running out.