FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot: English Local Elections 2022
Yesterday’s local elections, Boris Johnson’s first major national electoral outing since his landslide victory in 2019, have produced mixed results at best. Taking place against the backdrop of ‘partygate’, the cost-of-living crisis and the threat of an economic recession, many anticipated a brutal defeat for the Conservatives at the polls to finally land the death blow to Johnson’s premiership. While the Tories have lost more than 250 seats at the time of writing, this has not translated into all out victory for Labour. What we have learnt from these elections, is that there is still all to play for in the run up to the next general election.
The story of the night was Conservative collapse in London, Johnson’s old stomping ground, where the party lost control of Barnet, Wandsworth and Westminster to Labour. Snatching these ‘jewels in the crown’ local authorities from the grip of the Conservatives, is symbolic of Labour’s growing dominance in the capital – Wandsworth and Westminster have been held by the Conservatives since 1978 and 1964, respectively. Despite this decisive result, outside of London the national picture is not clear cut. Keir Starmer claimed their historic success in London as ‘a big turning point’ for the party. On one hand, Starmer is right, as under his leadership, Labour has performed better in London than in 2018, at the height of the party’s antisemitism problem under Jeremy Corbyn, however on the other this picture was more mixed across the country.
Labour struggled to make significant headway in reclaiming the ‘Red Wall’ which was paramount to Johnson claiming his 80-seat majority in 2019. While the north and midlands have proven not to be immune to Johnson’s ongoing political woes – analysis by the BBC shows that the Conservatives are down 4 points in 500 wards surveyed by the BBC across the country, compared to 2018 under Theresa May – this has not naturally translated into huge gains for Labour, with the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party taking some of the gains. The Lib Dems gained have around 150 councillors, including full control of Kingston-Upon-Hull from Labour. While the Greens enjoyed a ‘phenomenal’ night gaining over 25 seats including their first ever seat on Coventry Council.
There is a clear indication that the legacy of Brexit in the still lingers, as Conservative hold in ‘leave’ communities remains firm, with early analysis showing that they increased their vote share in these areas.
That said Labour will take some heart from vote share in key areas. Take Wolverhampton for example, where despite not making any gains in terms of council seats, Labour has seen its vote share increase. In a general election, this would have seen them reclaim the parliamentary constituencies of Wolverhampton South West and North East. It should however be remembered that votes cast in local elections do not always translate to support at general election time.
However, this performance does not show a sufficient level of progress to indicate that Labour could win a general election were it to be called tomorrow. Despite enjoying a steady 4%-6% lead in the polls over the last two months, party strategists will be disappointed that this has not translated into a knockout blow to a severely weakened Boris Johnson. Given the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote shares it is possible chatter of a Labour-Lib Dem alliance in the run up to the general election will resurface. The Lib Dems are strongly emerging as the big winners of the night and as the Conservatives’ biggest electoral threat gaining control of Somerset Council after 13 years of Conservative control. It is not surprising that a Labour-Lib Dem may appeal to some quarters, however it has so far failed to win any serious support.
Last night’s results will not come as a total shock to the Conservatives who had expected to be punished by the London electorate. However, there will likely be something of a sigh of relief in No10 – midterm results tend to be bad for the party incumbent in national government and these losses are lower than some had projected. So whilst Boris Johnson’s hitherto strong electoral popularity is somewhat dented, the process in Westminster makes it difficult for Conservative MPs to oust Johnson. He has once again been put through the electoral ‘ring of fire’ and has emerged, in the round, relatively unscathed.
With the local elections out of the way and the Queen’s Speech next week, Johnson is expected to refresh his cabinet and ministerial team to strengthen his position and keep him in No10 at least for a little while longer.
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In London, Conservatives lost control of the totemic councils of Wandsworth and Westminster, as well as Barnet, to Labour. While Wandsworth has been trending towards Labour, who won each of the borough’s three parliamentary constituencies at the 2019 general election including the gain of Putney; Westminster has been Conservative controlled since its inception and encompasses areas such as Mayfair and Knightsbridge – hardly typical Labour territory, however the mismanagement of ‘The Mound’ has meant the Conservative leadership faced ridicule in recent months. Likewise, Barnet has never been under Labour control. The loss of Westminster and Wandsworth in particular is significant: the latter in particular was seen as being a well-run council while both had significantly lower rates of council tax compared to neighbouring Labour-controlled boroughs. Even that was not enough for the Conservatives to retain control of the flagship councils. Wandsworth especially was seen as the “jewel in the crown” for the party. It had been held for 44 years and was Margaret Thatcher’s favourite council.
The results mean that London is now even more of a Labour fiefdom than had been the case previously. As things stand, the remaining Conservative councils in the city are restricted to some of the surrounding boroughs, with Tory held Kensington and Chelsea the sole exception in the city centre. Beyond the two main parties, the Liberal Democrats held Richmond upon Thames as well as Sutton Council. Both the Liberal Democrats and Greens made gains across the city as the smaller parties fared well. Nonetheless, Labour’s hegemony in the city was the story of the night in London. While the Conservatives expected losses, gaining Westminster Council was at the upper-end of Labour’s expectations, with the party not even having targeted it with extra resources during the campaign. Conservative MPs has already priced in losses in London and so this on its own is unlikely to be enough to trigger any further calls for Johnson to go.
Labour did not make gains in the former Red Wall equivalent to their success in London. However the context is complicated, with Labour performing better in these areas than they did at the 2019 general election when these seats shifted decisively to the Tories. So whilst compared to the last time these seats were fought in 2018, the picture is largely similar in contrast the party did much better than when it lost the parliamentary seats in these areas in 2019. Labour will quietly take some confidence from this whilst acknowledging the hill still to climb.
Labour did, however, gain control of Portsmouth City Council and the new Cumberland Council. The second of these is notable given the council area’s three MPs are all Conservative. The result in Cumberland was of such significance that the Conservative leader of Carlisle City Council called on Tory MPs to oust Boris Johnson, arguing that the scandals that have beset the Prime Minister were at the root of his party’s poor performance.
While the attention leading up to yesterday’s election was understandably focused on the two main parties, the big surprise winners of the night were the Liberal Democrats. The party has made significant gains across England, increasing its number of councillors by 150 at the time of writing compared to the relatively weak 46 gains made by Labour (with counting still ongoing). Indeed, this represents the biggest net gain of any party so far and includes advances in Tory heartlands in the home counties as well as seizing control of Hull City Council from Labour. Gains in Wokingham and West Oxfordshire have pushed the respective councils into no overall control, while the party replaced the Conservatives as the largest party in Tunbridge Wells and gained control of Somerset.
The Liberal Democrat resurgence is in stark contrast to its relatively poor performance in 2018, which provided a low benchmark to surpass. Nonetheless, Conservatives in affluent, Remain-voting areas of southern England will be worried. While victories for the Liberal Democrats in the Chesham and Amersham, and North Shropshire by-elections could be deflected as being the result of local factors and scandal, as well as their fearsome by-election winning machine, these results will be harder to dismiss. Leader Sir Ed Davey has made clear his strategy to target “Blue Wall” seats in the south of England and last night’s results suggest that this could yield further success when the next general election comes. Potential big scalps could include the Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, with the party making gains in his constituency. The Tiverton and Honiton by-election, following Neil Parish’s resignation in yet more scandalous circumstances, will provide the next test as to whether the Liberal Democrats are back as a force in British politics.
Whilst the picture is still emerging, the winner in yesterday’s election seems to have been none of the above. So far, neither the Conservatives, nor Labour have got the result they wanted.
Labour
The conditions arguably could not have been better for Labour with the Conservatives battling against a backdrop of party-gate, sleaze and the cost-of-living crisis, however the results are not the great recovery that the Leader’s office would have liked to see.
Whilst gains in Cumberland, Southampton and of course across London will be welcome; Labour needs to be punching through in places such as Bolton, Tyneside, Sunderland and Hartlepool if they are to win the next general election.
No one underestimates the mammoth task Starmer took on as Labour Leader, and whilst these results show steady progress, the scale of how much further he needs to go is likely to send a wakeup call around the Labour benches.
The Leader’s office will take comfort in winning Barnet Council, an area with a high Jewish population which firmly placed their trust in the party at this election. A move unthinkable under and in the aftermath of Corbyn’s leadership. In his respect, Starmer is winning back the trust of former Labour voters who had felt unable to support the part under its former leader.
Labour will need to appeal to voters across the country at the next election and Starmer knows there is still a job to do in the former red wall. He should take these results as a clear if not firm platform to build on and continue in his mission to make the party speak to the issue voters care about once more.
He needs to do this quickly as the upcoming Wakefield by-election, won by the Conservatives at the 2019 election, is a must win for him if he is to show the party he is the man who can take Labour back into No.10.
Conservatives
The Conservative Party were expected to perform poorly and that they did. So far, they have lost more than 250 Councillors, with more to follow. According to latest BBC figures, the Conservative vote share was down by 6 percentage points in London and the North from 2018.
However, despite a national mood marred by party-gate and the cost-of-living crisis, these losses have not been as grave as some had thought. As the Prime Minister stated this morning, it’s “certainly a mixed set of results.” The former Red Wall did not use this as an opportunity to roll back their 2019 support for the Conservatives, and this may be the saving grace for Johnson.
The results in these local authorities show that the Conservatives are still being given the benefit of the doubt and/or are seen as the best out of a bad bunch. Either way, these battlegrounds will matter most to MPs as it will be where the next General Election will be fought and won. Whilst the Conservatives have reasons to be cheerful in the North and the Midlands, the reverse can be said about London and Scotland. In the capital, it was a bruising night. The flagship losses also mean that the Conservatives will need to rethink their message to Londoners should they stand any chance of re-establishing a foothold in future.
Whilst the Conservatives won the expectation management game, it is important to note that the Party has still performed worse than in 2018 when the Government at the time faced relentless Brexit turmoil.
Conservative MPs will be waking up today to a mix of emotions. Many will be angry at the loss of their good local Councillors. Those who questioned whether Johnson had lost his electoral sparkle and become a liability following party-gate may feel their concerns assuaged to a certain extent. Others waiting to oust the Prime Minister after the expected poor performance will be sorely disappointed.
It would appear Johnson has bought himself a reprieve, for now.
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