2024 Mexico Election Report: Claudia Sheinbaum Elected President in a Landslide
General elections took place in Mexico on Sunday, June 2. The candidate of the ruling coalition, Claudia Sheinbaum, won in a landslide. She will serve a single, six-year term, beginning on October 1.
Six years ago, President López Obrador beat the combined total of the current opposition coalition by just over 14 points. Sheinbaum’s expected margin of 28-30 points is unprecedented in modern Mexico. According to preliminary figures, the ruling coalition seems to have secured two-thirds majorities in both houses of Congress. This would enable constitutional reforms without negotiation with the opposition. The ruling coalition also won seven of the nine state governorships up for grabs. They will head 24 of the 32 states.
Will there be a reckoning for institutions?
A new Congress will be sworn in on September 1, one month ahead of the presidential transition.
López Obrador will get one month with a supermajority. He may get to push through constitutional amendments he has long insisted on, placing autonomous institutions under political control and making Supreme Court Justices be elected by popular vote. The president-elect would find checks and balances in Mexico re-set before taking office.
Sheinbaum will inherit this power — and be able to place her own stamp on the reform agenda.
Could we still see a turn to pragmatism?
Sheinbaum has simultaneously sought to underscore her credentials as a climate scientist committed to technically sound policies and to align herself with López Obrador’s political and ideological decisions. This duality clearly proved a very effective campaign tool, but the balance could be much harder to maintain in office.
The energy sector may be the main test. Sheinbaum has doubled down on giving state-owned companies a leading role but will need to attract investment, as energy infrastructure development is visibly lagging.
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