2024 Elections: What to Watch for in the United States, UK and Europe
This year, more than half of the world will vote in elections¹. In addition to the high-profile presidential, congressional, state and local elections being held in the United States this year, voters will also head to the polls in the UK and European Union (“EU”). Below, FTI Consulting experts provide an overview of the electoral landscape and what organizations need to look out for.
Jackson Dunn: The United States
Presidential election on November 5
The upcoming 2024 presidential campaign is poised to be one of the most divisive ever, carrying significant long-term ramifications for federal policy. While the outcome remains uncertain, both the Biden and Trump factions are actively laying groundwork for their prospective second terms, outlining priorities and devising implementation strategies.
Given the potential impact of government policies and ongoing campaign dynamics on organizational operations and reputations, it’s imperative for companies and firms to proactively navigate political risks emanating from Washington. Waiting to gauge the election results is not an option—there simply won’t be sufficient time between Election Day and Inauguration Day to influence the perspectives and policies of either president and his administration. Moreover, in today’s political climate, politicians from across the spectrum are attuned to populist sentiments among the electorate, both in rhetoric and policy proposals. This has led to a greater willingness among politicians to publicly criticize and target private sector actors in order to advance their agendas, leaving companies and their executives in a defensive stance vis-à-vis employees, customers, and investors.
Alex Deane: The United Kingdom
General election expected to take place in the second half of 2024²
The UK general election is unlikely to be as emotionally charged as the vote in the United States. Furthermore, both the Conservatives and Labour have presented themselves as allies of business, showing sensitivity to the needs of companies and investors. Yet at the same time, populist voices from both sides of the political spectrum are questioning the pro-business consensus, driven by a disgruntled electorate that has suffered through years of economic challenges and social divisions.
We expect the greatest political focus to be on sectors that directly affect the cost of living. The energy sector will attract scrutiny, as will financial services and consumer-facing businesses such as retailers, utilities and food manufacturers. Growth and productivity remain significant challenges, as does the question of how to counter a sense of national malaise and restore confidence—not just among markets or investors, but in the wider electorate.
Businesses must be vocal about how they contribute positively to society and back these arguments with action. Savvy organizations will have already made fruitful connections with Labour, which may take control of the government for the first time in 14 years. If the result of the election is change, the key will be to rapidly communicate to stakeholders that this is being smoothly managed and that you have the necessary links and strategy to continue prospering under a new administration. At the same time, it will also be important not to fan the flames or burn existing political bridges.
Hans Hack: The European Union
European Parliament (EP) election on June 6-9
This year’s European Parliament (EP) elections are set to significantly change the composition of the EP and thus influence policies and companies facing those policies. It’s estimated that only around half of the parliament’s current members are seeking re-election, meaning there will be a considerable number of newcomers. Considering that there will be a shift to the right, reaching a post-election stable political majority will prove challenging. Furthermore, as a result of this year’s election, it appears that more than 70% of European Commissioners (political appointees of each member state who shape proposed initiatives at the EU level) will be new.
The upcoming European elections will have a significant impact on policymaking in various sectors. Key themes emerging from the campaigns are fostering competitiveness, implementing a European Green Deal (making existing rules work rather than adding more) and boosting defense capabilities amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. It’s highly likely that the new European Commission will focus on implementing measures that strengthen the reindustrialization of the EU and address the funding needs in the different relevant sectors.
In order to make a meaningful contribution to ongoing political debates and influence upcoming legislative proposals, it will be important for organizations to engage in pre- and post-election phase work. They should anticipate potential changes in policy and seek to mitigate risk by proactively engaging with policymakers and regulators to share market insights and opinions on measures that could benefit the EU’s market. Communicating efficiently and at the right time, while leveraging both traditional and social media, will be key to increasing the policy brand of your organization, which may in turn reinforce your capacity to engage in and impact policy debates.
Caroline Muecke-Kemp: Germany
European Parliament election on June 9
The European Parliament election will have a major impact on German markets. Given the link between international trade and several top issues in this year’s election (e.g., European Green Deal, defense policy, foreign relations), producers of base materials such as steel and chemicals, as well as the manufacturing sector, will need to pay close attention to EU Commission initiatives. Industries with business models that are directly affected by climate regulation such as energy, automotive, aviation or construction must closely observe the European Commission’s approach to climate. This will be of particular interest to Germany’s automotive industry. Finally, new initiatives to strengthen European competitiveness, especially in digital markets, may arise after the election and will be highly relevant for startups and other developers of digital products.
Organizations operating in Germany must tell a compelling narrative about their most pressing issues and take into account the broader political EU context when engaging with political decisionmakers. Given the current political climate and the likelihood of compromises amid conflicting policy goals, organizations will need to prepare for policy shifts and revise their narratives accordingly. Organizations must act early. Getting to know the new European Commission as well as newly elected members of the European Parliament will be the necessary first step to establish successful relationships amid changing agendas or rising regulatory scrutiny. Strong working relationships with decisionmakers will allow organizations to engage in political agenda-setting.
Carlos Ochoa-Alonso: Spain
Basque regional election on April 21
Regional election in Catalonia on May 12
European Parliament election on June 9
The upcoming European Parliament elections are not the only vote taking place this year: regional elections in Spain, specifically in the Basque Country and Catalonia, will be pivotal events with potential wide-ranging effects on public affairs and business landscapes. These regions are not only significant due to their industrial impact but also because of their substantial political influence. For businesses operating in or with interests in Spain, understanding the implications of these elections will be crucial for navigating the evolving political and economic environment.
Both regions are key producers of chemicals and have expressed commitments to advancing renewable energy and promoting the use of AI, impacting not just local but potentially national and European market dynamics. Energy prices and industrial policy will be part of the agenda for new governments in the Basque Country and Catalonia, especially given the broader European context of energy transition and economic competitiveness. Furthermore, in addition to ongoing issues around finance, education and healthcare, nationalist aspirations and autonomy will be front and center in these regions.
In the aftermath of regional elections, especially in politically and economically pivotal regions like the Basque Country and Catalonia, organizations must carefully consider their communication strategies with stakeholders. The goal should be to reassure, inform and engage stakeholders effectively while navigating the new political landscape. Adapting strategies to the specific context of Spain and the distinct dynamics of the Basque Country and Catalonia requires a nuanced approach that considers the unique political, economic, cultural and linguistic factors at play in these regions.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.
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