Newly appointed Taoiseach Simon Harris has committed that the government will go the full term, spurred on by his willingness to make a difference during his short stint in the role. However, there are several factors that could act as a catalyst for a general election before March 2025, including: the performance of government parties in the local and European elections in June, and the possibility of by-elections if any members of the current Dáil (Irish Parliament) running for the EU Parliament are successfully elected.
While the election date remains unclear, what is certain is that the outcome will likely bring about a seismic shift in Irish politics. For the first time in modern history, Sinn Féin are expected to enter government in Ireland, possibly as the largest party in the State. Despite a recent slight drop the main opposition party has held a substantial and consistent lead in the vast majority of opinion polls over Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil since the 2020 General Election. After 13 years in government, Fine Gael’s reputation with the public has progressively declined over that period with the public growing increasingly frustrated with its perceived failure to tackle the housing crisis, address the struggling healthcare system, and the cost of living challenges. Sinn Féin is viewed as the main alternative to the current government, with policies that promise to deliver the social and economic change many are seeking. It’s widely expected that the next election will be a question of how many seats they win, not if they will win, and how potential coalition partners perform.
Why Engage Now
The next 12 months will likely see a significant political shift take place in Ireland, and a new government formation will have a substantial impact on policy priorities and the business and regulatory environment. Because of this, now is a critical time for organisations to actively engage with relevant political stakeholders.
While some organisations may take the view that they should wait until the election result is known before engaging, this strategy will leave companies playing catch-up.
As parties start drafting election manifestos, which will ultimately shape the next Programme for Government, now is an ideal time to engage and advocate for policy that will support your company and wider sector. Political parties and policymakers are eager to engage with organisations to ensure that their policy formulations are thorough, well-informed, and grounded in evidence.
It is important that organisations understand that proactive engagement ahead of voting is crucial for shaping policies, influencing decision-makers, and safeguarding their interests effectively. The time between now and the next general election is your opportunity to try and shape the agenda, both in what parties are negotiating and what they are putting in their manifestos.
Additionally, given the uncertainty that the upcoming national election presents, it will be important for organisations to demonstrate to their wider stakeholders, employees, customers, and shareholders, that they are actively participating in conversations that may impact their business and industry. This can enhance an organisations reputation and foster trust.
What Companies Can Do
We are actively working with clients to provide tailored public affairs strategies, including: