FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot – It’s ‘No Drama Starmer’ as Labour launches its 2024 manifesto

This morning at the Co-operative Party HQ in Manchester, Labour leader Keir Starmer launched his Party’s 2024 general election manifesto, simply entitled Change.

With polls unanimously predicting a Labour landslide, today’s launch was an opportunity for the party to set out their stall as a government-in-waiting, providing a credible alternative to Conservative “chaos”, and cementing their claims to sensible, stable leadership.

However, the event got off to a potentially rocky start when Starmer was interrupted by a climate protestor, but the situation allowed Starmer to demonstrate first hand one of Labour’s central messages – that it “gave up on being a party of protest five years ago”.

Indeed, it was with this message in mind that Starmer coined it the “wealth creation” manifesto, underlining just how far the party has moved since the days of Jeremy Corbyn, and how comfortable he is stealing traditionally Conservative language. Perhaps the one throwback to the Corbyn era is the length of the manifesto. At a striking 132 pages, 27 pages longer than Corbyn’s notoriously long 2019 document and over 50 pages longer than the Conservatives’ it does provide a neat way to defuse the argument that Labour doesn’t have a plan.

But there are not a huge amount of new policy commitments within those 132 pages. Rather, the manifesto is intended to tell a broader story about what a Labour government would look like, giving a window into Labour’s priorities as opposed to a comprehensive policy deep dive. It was notable that Starmer made a virtue of this, arguing that the lack of a “rabbit out of the hat” signalled a move away from “pantomime” politics towards credible, stable government.

The manifesto, as expected, reiterates Labour’s five missions for the country: kickstarting economic growth, making Britain a clean energy superpower, taking back our streets, breaking down barriers to opportunity, and building an NHS fit for the future.

Strikingly, the manifesto makes it clear that Labour’s approach to government will be underpinned by the “strong foundations” of national security, secure borders, and economic stability. Indeed, it explicitly states that “no policy commitment in pursuit of Labour’s missions matters unless we uphold the first duty of any government: to keep the country safe” and reiterating Labour’s commitment to protecting national security, strengthening the armed forces, supporting NATO, maintaining the UK’s nuclear deterrent, and tackling migration and the small boats crisis. That’s language that parks Labour’s tanks firmly on the Conservatives’ lawn.

Economically, too, sound money and economic stability is a “non-negotiable principle” for a “changed Labour party”. The manifesto argues for a “balance between prioritising investment and the urgent need to rebuild our public finances”, rejecting both a return to austerity and the “siren voices” of limitless state spending.

Labour’s policy pledges are to be funded by an additional £7 billion in tax revenue from tax, including £5.2 billion from abolishing non-domiciled status and cracking down on tax avoidance and evasion, £1.5 billion from VAT and business rates on private schools, and additional money from closing the carried interest “tax loophole” and a 1% stamp duty increase on non-UK residents’ property purchases. Notably, the manifesto explicitly commits to not raising income tax, national insurance, or VAT.

Yet, given the challenging economic environment, critics remain sceptical of Labour’s ability to guarantee ruling out potential tax rises. Labour’s contention is that the manifesto is “fully costed” – a phrase repeatedly spun out with a view to neutralising Conservative attack lines on Labour’s economic credibility – but we should expect plenty of Conservative spinning that once in power, Labour might argue that a worse-than-expected economic situation warrants further intervention.

In the lead up to the election Labour has been accused of adopting the “Ming vase strategy”, a phrase coined when Roy Jenkins famously described Tony Blair as being “like a man carrying a priceless Ming vase across a highly polished floor” ahead of Labour’s 1997 landslide. By acting with caution, and avoiding difficult, potentially controversial, conversations, the hope is the Conservative party will lose the election for themselves.

Labour’s manifesto is within exactly this vein – whilst long, it is strategically cautious. And though politicos have heard these commitments before, the party will hope it allows Labour’s narrative to cut through more widely, and reassure swing voters that under Labour they will be in safe hands.

With a Labour majority looking almost certain, some activists may have welcomed a bolder manifesto.  Yet with polling day quickly approaching, Starmer only has three more weeks to carry that Ming vase and avoid any major slip ups if he, like Tony Blair before him, is to successfully get the keys to Number 10. It was a strategy that worked in 1997 – and it seems to be working now.