FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: After 25 years of devolution, what’s next for Scotland and the Scottish Parliament?
On 12 May 1999, the inaugural meeting of the Scottish Parliament took place following the passing of the Scotland Act 1998. The Scottish Parliament was opened less than two months later by Her late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II. Now, 25 years later, with over a decade of SNP electoral dominance likely to end and Scotland potentially providing the key to a Labour majority, what is next for Scotland and the Scottish Parliament?
Two weeks ago, the Scottish Parliament swore in its seventh First Minister, John Swinney, marking the SNP’s fourth in a period of political dominance that stretches back to the Salmond years of 2007 onwards. It is easily forgotten that the Scottish Parliament was in fact a Labour project, pursued jointly with the Liberal Democrats and civil society organisations, with Labour providing the initial three First Ministers before Jack McConnell’s defeat to Alex Salmond in 2007.
That election was seen as an inflection point for Scottish politics, striking the match that would ignite the independence movement and set the cogs in motion for the eventual referendum seven years later. Labour has never achieved as high a constituency vote or regional vote in Scotland since that election and has spent the best part of eight years as the third party in Holyrood – behind the SNP and the Scottish Conservatives.
This is all despite Labour dominating politics in Scotland throughout the latter decades of the 20th century and into the first years of the millennium – winning the largest vote share in Scotland at every General Election from 1964 to 2010, every European Parliament election from 1984 to 2004, and the first two elections of the Scottish Parliament.
That streak of poor fortune now looks set to end. Much to Labour’s benefit, the resignation of long-serving First Minister Nicola Sturgeon with the backdrop of criminal proceedings against her husband – the former SNP Chief Executive, Peter Murrell – has wounded the SNP. The sudden downfall of her successor, Humza Yousaf, has further used up political capital, and with the state of Scotland’s schools and NHS becoming a focal point of political attacks, the SNP now look electorally mortal.
There has also been tangible evidence of this. Polling is one thing, and in most recent forecasts Labour sits 10% ahead of the SNP at 39%. However, October 2023’s Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election gave a true indication that the Scottish electorate now looks ready for change.
Labour’s Keir Starmer has made no secret of the electoral importance that Scotland may hold for his party’s chances of forming a majority government in Westminster. Though he will also recognise that Labour’s success in Scotland will be reliant on of swathes of voters staying at home or turning their backs on the SNP and Conservatives and choosing to embrace his party once again.
The return of senior Labour politicians to the Scottish political fold will certainly help the party’s chances, with the likes of former Cabinet Minister Douglas Alexander being selected in East Lothian, and former adviser to the Brown administration Kirsty McNeill being selected in Midlothian.
Even so, should Labour return to its pre-2015 numbers in Scotland, there still remains the interminable issue of Scottish independence, with polling suggesting that Scotland remains very much divided on this at 48% for remaining in the United Kingdom and 44% in favour of independence.
If Starmer really is to raise the Labour flag in Scotland for years to come, it is imperative that he finds a way to quell this movement and ensure that any gains made in Westminster are solidified during the subsequent Scottish Parliament election in May 2026. Then there is the wider issue of historic toxicity in the Scottish political environment, compounded by clear demonstrations from Westminster that it is willing to use the Internal Markets Act to thwart Holyrood-backed legislation where necessary, namely the Gender Recognition Reforms Bill and the Deposit Return Scheme.
Whether this is an “attack” on devolution or devolution simply working the way it was designed to without encroaching on reserved matters remains a politically moot question. Though it does go against the initial ambitions of Labour’s Donald Dewar, the first First Minister, who sought for Scotland to find Scottish solutions to Scottish problems.
However, with record drug deaths, high levels of poverty, and the announcement of a national housing emergency on the week that marked the 25th anniversary of the Scottish Parliament’s inaugural meeting, it is hard to consider Scotland’s experience with devolution as overwhelmingly positive. Whichever party comes out on top in Scotland in 2024 and 2026, there is no doubt that it will face serious challenges in achieving national prosperity and healing the political divisions that have become so abundantly clear.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.
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