Leading in a Time of Crisis – a Look Back at the German Presidency of the Council of the EU in 2020

Crisis Mode from Day One

In July 2020, Germany assumed the Presidency of the Council of the EU at a pivotal moment. As the European Union found itself in the firm grip of the COVID-19 pandemic, many Europeans hoped that Germany under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel would reinstate a sense of stability while simultaneously finding ways for the bloc to overcome the crisis. For the Presidency, a mammoth task lay ahead: The initially envisioned agenda, which once had included ambitious goals in the fields of digital policy, climate action, geopolitical engagement and many others, had to be scrapped almost entirely. The focus instead shifted towards crisis management, and even safeguarding European integration itself. Adding to the complexity, the Presidency had significantly fewer working resources at its disposal than in normal times. The Council’s logistical capacities had simply not foreseen a full-scale ‘virtual Presidency’, which forced the German Presidency to make do with the limited technical possibilities at hand.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

It was above all the theme of European solidarity and resilience that accompanied the German Presidency. During the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, European integration appeared to be in jeopardy: Member States ignored the pleas from Brussels for a unified crisis response and instead chose to act unilaterally. This resulted in a period of border closures, fragmented travel guidelines and export bans on personal protective equipment. Many even feared the rise of “vaccine nationalism” within the bloc – a dilemma that was ultimately averted as Member States soon settled on joint procurement mechanisms. The EU’s internal disputes over crisis management notably abated over the last months, not least to the diplomatic acumen of the German Presidency. This positive momentum was carried forward to the European Council meeting in December, where the most notable achievement under German leadership materialized: The agreement on the 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework, which includes the EU’s new €1.074 trillion long-term budget as well as “Next Generation EU”, the accompanying €750 billion recovery package. At the same time, Germany managed to push through tightened climate goals, another key priority on the agenda. The deal foresees a targeted reduction in emissions by at least 55% over 1990 levels, set to be achieved by 2030. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Germany has also driven the conversation around health care policies; a field in which the EU is traditionally only equipped with a limited mandate. This may well change, as the German Presidency’s efforts have helped pave the way for the Commission’s proposal for a ‘European Health Union’, which envisions a stronger integration of health care policies on the EU level. In addition, Germany was a strong advocate for a reform of the World Health Organization, which has prompted the EU to issue conclusions on how to strengthen the WHO.

On the flip side, the EU under the German Presidency often faced the challenge of finding common ground. Questions around coordination and coexistence shaped the public debate in recent months. With the new year just around the corner, the threat of a “no-deal” Brexit looms particularly large. Although Germany has so far been unsuccessful in leveraging its political weight to help the Commission conclude a deal, German representatives point to the fact that they successfully kept Member States in line, allowing the EU to retain a unified stance towards the UK. However, this could arguably only be seen as a minor victory in light of the imminent drama that may follow a ‘hard’ split with the UK. In addition, more unresolved questions remain in other policy fields. On migration and asylum, the Presidency stated that they would have liked to see more progress being made. Regarding foreign affairs and security, a lack of alignment on underlying issues around EU sovereignty appears to have hamstrung the bloc’s ability to reach a consensus on far-reaching policy positions. Many Europeans are not satisfied with the marginal progress that Germany has achieved here. As it stands, it will likely be challenging for the Union to jointly address economic and geopolitical issues with countries such as the United States, China, Russia and Turkey. The ongoing dilemma of the EU is perhaps best illustrated by the non-progress on the “Conference on the Future of Europe”, a high-level summit that had aimed to recalibrate some of the cornerstone values of the EU. Considering the current political situation, there were probably few moments in history when such a conference would have been more timely. However, progress has all but stalled and the German Presidency has not managed to help resolve basic questions, such as who will act as the chair of the conference.

Meanwhile, in the political arena in Germany, developments around the Presidency have received negligible public attention outside of the dedicated policy circles. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to dominate the political landscape and most of the attention remains on domestic decision-making. Indeed, the German Presidency was not the final glory for Angela Merkel that many political analysts had expected – her last months in office are rather characterized by her efforts to navigate the country through the pandemic while facing the many challenges that Germany’s federal political system confronts the Chancellery with.

A Special Trio Presidency

As the German Presidency passes the torch to Portugal on January 1^st, the second phase of the so-called trio presidency begins. Slovenia will take the helm in July 2021, completing the trio. From the beginning, it was clear that this trio presidency would be a special one: Many files which Germany wanted to address had to take a back seat to the pressing demands of crisis management and were deferred to a later stage. In this context, the German Presidency has emphasized that it would like to closely cooperate with Portugal and Slovenia, hoping that some of its policy ambitions can live on in the work programs of their successors. A few concrete issues are already on the table, such as the EU’s industrial strategy, trade policy, the regulation of digital services and artificial intelligence as well as the implementation of measures to achieve the EU’s climate goals.

Looking back at a Presidency that took place during an extraordinary time of crisis, Germany can point to a few noteworthy achievements but nevertheless leaves behind a plate full of challenges. In the face of a political environment that necessitates the careful preservation of European integration, it remains to be seen whether the Presidencies of Portugal and Slovenia can find timely and appropriate answers to the European Union’s most pressing questions.

The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, Inc., its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.